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somehow this discussion reminds me that presents have "dodged" my attack...

And regarding the code:
I only found things saying either dodge or parry (depending on the defense mode) if it's not a success.
Except for a place where the miss is forced (tirage, usually a random number between 0 and 99 is set to 99 there) later on it checks tirage against the success chance and if it's smaller than the chance it checks for a critical hit (meaning smaller tirage = better for the attacker)

In combat_phrase.cpp, a combat action results in a "miss" if the function testPhraseSuccess (lines 1422-1465) returns a value of false. This happens if the call to getSuccessFactor returns a value <= 0.0.

The code that Jarnys discussed is the function getSuccessFactor (lines 322-351) in phrase_utilities_functions.cpp, which is called by testPhraseSuccess. Basically, if the action is not determined to be a success or partial success, then it will result in a miss.

Perhaps someone that is better at reading C++ code than me can figure out how the probabilities of success and partial success are determined. :)