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I went to make some jewels for an overseer with master skills at a supposed 85% success. Decided to do q250 to wear out some death penalty. Mission was to make 36 jewels at q210. I had to make two extra since they two were below Q210.

Total made: 38
Total success: 28 (73.6%) 
Total degrades: 10 (26.4%) 
2022/11/23 07:27:29 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:27:34 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!2022/11/23 07:27:38 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:27:42 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:27:46 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:27:50 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:27:55 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:27:59 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:03 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:07 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:28:12 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:16 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:20 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:28:24 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:28:29 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:28:33 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:37 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:41 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:28:46 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:50 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:54 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:28:58 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:29:02 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:07 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:29:11 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:29:15 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:19 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:24 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:28 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:29:32 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:36 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:40 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:45 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:49 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:53 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:29:58 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:30:05 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:30:10 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!

I had two missions anyway, so I decided to try again despite having no more DP.  
Make 35 jewels at Q210, did it at Q250. It was a slight improvement but still not 85% success.

Total made: 36 (One extra due to more than expected degrade results)
Total success @250: 29 (80.5%)
Total degrades: 7 (19.4%)

2022/11/23 07:57:52 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:57:57 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:01 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:58:05 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:09 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:14 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:18 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:22 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:26 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:30 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:35 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:39 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:43 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:58:47 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:58:52 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:58:56 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:00 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:04 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:59:09 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:59:13 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:17 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:21 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:59:26 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:30 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:34 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:38 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:42 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:47 (SYSTEM/ITMF) * Your crafting action is a partial success! The crafted item's quality is degraded!
2022/11/23 07:59:51 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:55 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 07:59:59 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 08:00:04 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 08:00:08 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 08:00:12 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 08:00:16 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!
2022/11/23 08:00:24 (SYSTEM/ITM) * Your crafting action is a success!

So... This is what 85% looks like. Huh.

Haven't checked the code but my assumption is that crafting is conditional double roll of a dice. First roll includes success rate and if that returns False second roll determines 'level' of failure.

I highly doubt first roll isn't correct. But as with any atomised* RNG, to really reverse results to 0.85 (85%) you would need to roll the dice infinite number of times. Would be just as possible to get small number (80 is small) of attempts and get something higher than actual success rate.

Of course, whether 85% SR at target level is fair, is another topic.

But I would definitely argue that having 5%+ failures resulting in >40 levels lower result @85% SR isn't.

---------------------

* RNG series where each 'roll' is completely independent of any and all previous rolls.

Typical 'easy-way-out' of game design. Properly one would design sliding RNG where chance rate starts at advertised and then gets adjusted slightly after each roll to nudge average towards advertised result.

Trivial example:
Premise is 0.8 (aka 80%)

# pseudo code
k = 0.02     # k << 1, w/o it would oscillate too wildly
cA = 0.8     # advertised chance
cE = cA      # effective chance
while < attempts
  y = RNG(cE)    # some function that returns min < cE < max
  cE += (cA - y) * k

So if one gets into slump, rolling below, the longer this goes on the better effective chance one gets. And vice versa with rolls above.

In the long run, it settles into cA but the benefit is that player sees far less 'bad luck black holes' and thus assumes fairness.

The number of crafts is way too small, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers you need at least 1000 or more for the % to settle slowly towards 85. It is still random and the biggest complaint in general from a players perspective. Silly example, if your chance is 99% you could fail twice in a row. It is super rare, but it COULD happen. Same for any other %

arc

Sorry for the late reply. I haven't been playing the game very much. Real life stuff. I also forget to check the forums.

I came to this conclusion a few years ago when i tested the 60% dodge for combat. If you search for my posts you'll see it. I concluded that you'll only get 60% dodge after very prolonged battle. You don't actually see 60% dodge during a normal fight. But if someone is fighting the same mob over and over again to obtain mats, for instance, they'll see 60% over many hours of the same repetitive fighting, similar to my tests.