Bitttymacod (atys)
If we were attempting to evaluate what the true chance of success was by measuring data and we had that result, our best estimate would be that the chance of success was one in a million.
In my example you might have observed 1 in a million, but the chance of each action is still 5%. As they are independent they do not have to average out so that our sample has a success rate similar to each individual action. If you did another million crafts the rate would almost certainly be different each time. No matter how many times you observe the only thing that matters is the individual craft's success rate; Its like playing Roulette and saying my number *must* come up once every 37 spins, well it could come up 3 times in 37 spins or not once in 10,000 spins...
Bitttymacod (atys)
Placio (atys)False, because if it were true it would mean that the measurements were not independent.So if your success is lower than 50% you will tend to fail more than each action failure rate, and if the rate is above 50% you will tend to succeed more than the rate would suggest.
What you are saying is equivalent to saying that since I get an 85% chance (as reported) to successfully make a single jewel, that my overall rate of creating jewels should be *more* than 85%.
I said *tend* in your example you have an 85% success rate, so every time you craft there is a better chance that you will succeed than fail (15% failure rate per action). In the case of an over crafter where success is only 10% this time, there is a better chance of failure each action. If you failure rate is 90% each time it would *tend* to give you less than 10% success because each time you have a great risk of failing. But as you point out they are independent, so they do not have to trend that way, you might get lucky one day or really unlucky the next.
Bitttymacod (atys)
Once again, you assert "value". I once again assert that if the "value" is decreased time and mats to master rank, that the value is there, but that it is small.
Based on your levels hypothesis I argued that scrolls provide more benefit to over crafters, because when a master uses them they only get .5% for each level over their skill, but over crafters get 1.6% for each level that they get closer to the action level. So a master getting 10 point boost from a scroll only gets an additional 5%, but an over crafter getting the same 10 point boost will get an additional 16% success.