Placio (atys)
True, as far as it goes. However, it assumes that we know the ideal chance of success. (e.g. we know that it is a totally unbiased d20 that we are watching for a 3 to appear). While your example is correct if we know that, the probability of that occurrence is very very low. No Bittty, independent means action 1 is 5% chance, action 2 is 5% chance, etc. Even if you get 999,999 fails in a row the next action still only has a 5% chance of success.
If we were attempting to evaluate what the true chance of success was by measuring data and we had that result, our best estimate would be that the chance of success was one in a million.
Placio (atys)
False, because if it were true it would mean that the measurements were not independent. So if your success is lower than 50% you will tend to fail more than each action failure rate, and if the rate is above 50% you will tend to succeed more than the rate would suggest.
What you are saying is equivalent to saying that since I get an 85% chance (as reported) to successfully make a single jewel, that my overall rate of creating jewels should be *more* than 85%.
Placio (atys)
I finally found Dao's post, and she concluded that scrolls are working properly now. You levels hypothesis is accepted by a few the know the game code better than me, so I'll go with it. But that would make scrolls even more valuable to over crafters because it is 1.6 percent additional success for each skill level approaching the action level.
In fact, hers was a very conservative statement. There is no solid evidence to suggest that the scrolls were actually ever broken.
Once again, you assert "value". I once again assert that if the "value" is decreased time and mats to master rank, that the value is there, but that it is small.
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Remembering Tyneetryk
Phaedreas Tears - 15 years old and first(*) of true neutral guilds in Atys.
(*) This statement is contested, but we are certainly the longest lasting.
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