A short intermediate message: I started the measurement of my daily craftings and got the first series of results.
Summary:
My perception that there is some deviation from expected results in disadvantage for the crafters has been disproven. On contrary, the results so far, while well inside the error margin, revealed a deviation favoring the crafter.
Methods:
I chose my daily crafting in Dyron as test setting. Every day, I am taking the 10 missions from the overseer at the campfire. I solely processed materials of q250 (or above) with crafting quality 250, thus an expected success rate of 85%. This set of missions comprises of 71 acts of crafting, processing 1085 materials. The number of craftings necessary may increase, though, in case a crafting ends up in a degrade below the quality required by the mission giver, and has to be repeated.
I measured the outcome of craftings for 2 weeks and 15 sets of missions, between June 27 and July 9.
Results:
In summary, I had to do 1086 craftings resulting in 138 failures. This is a mean percentage of 87.3% success or 12.7% failures, below the precraft expectation of 15% failures. Median was 73 craftings and 10 failures, thus 13.7% failures.
The results contradict my original impression of a bias in disadvantage for the player. No matter whether my perception was flawed at that time, or I had a series of bad luck, the results demonstrate that crafting success over a longer period stays inside the range of expected outcome. Thus, the RNG seems not to be broken ;)
Next step will be the observation of craftings under the same conditions, using q60 scrollmaster product "masterful writing necessities". The tests are underway. So far, they show impressive advantages using the writing set. After having finished this series, I shall test the q70 set (though for a shorter period) to test whether the impression of failure holds for these products.
Summary:
My perception that there is some deviation from expected results in disadvantage for the crafters has been disproven. On contrary, the results so far, while well inside the error margin, revealed a deviation favoring the crafter.
Methods:
I chose my daily crafting in Dyron as test setting. Every day, I am taking the 10 missions from the overseer at the campfire. I solely processed materials of q250 (or above) with crafting quality 250, thus an expected success rate of 85%. This set of missions comprises of 71 acts of crafting, processing 1085 materials. The number of craftings necessary may increase, though, in case a crafting ends up in a degrade below the quality required by the mission giver, and has to be repeated.
I measured the outcome of craftings for 2 weeks and 15 sets of missions, between June 27 and July 9.
Results:
In summary, I had to do 1086 craftings resulting in 138 failures. This is a mean percentage of 87.3% success or 12.7% failures, below the precraft expectation of 15% failures. Median was 73 craftings and 10 failures, thus 13.7% failures.
The results contradict my original impression of a bias in disadvantage for the player. No matter whether my perception was flawed at that time, or I had a series of bad luck, the results demonstrate that crafting success over a longer period stays inside the range of expected outcome. Thus, the RNG seems not to be broken ;)
Next step will be the observation of craftings under the same conditions, using q60 scrollmaster product "masterful writing necessities". The tests are underway. So far, they show impressive advantages using the writing set. After having finished this series, I shall test the q70 set (though for a shorter period) to test whether the impression of failure holds for these products.
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Daomei die Streunerin - religionsneutral, zivilisationsneutral, gildenneutral