Bitty:
I didn't say the sample, wasn't small. I said it wasn't THAT small. Yes it is possible that the statistical deviation makes the 10% average still possible but with each increase in number of crafts, that chance gets smaller & smaller. And it's eerily odd that the LA % and the Jools % were the same.= %
Also of significance, as Daomi pointed out, we haven't heard of a Lucky Freddy. Peeps I have talked to are reporting the same 7%, or at least less than 10%, and even more oddly, everyone seems to be getting an overabundance of sap boosts. The commonality of experience "seems" just too odd here to be a statistical aberration. Time will tell but I imagine an election newscaster, would have the confidence at this point to "call this one". Yes, there's the Dewey / Truman and Gore in Florida thing in the back of the newscaster's mind but just how often does that happen ?
As pointed out by Gilga here, the random number thing "has" changed:
http://app.ryzom.com/app_forum/index.php?page=topic/view/15434/62
If we drop the decimal and call it 8%, we still need 25% more to get to the "given" number. I have had my issues with RNG in game before.
I went 0 for 66 on the "/random 100" thing in Dante without thinking it was broken and then managed 3 wins outta the next 10. While that was still only 4% to the expected 11%, I wasn't about to jump to a to a conclusion
I remember that there was a similar discussion back when we started using scrolls. However, I think that few would argue today that the 99% (85 + 14) success rate with a QL70 scroll was real.
Like you, I also do math "for a living" and while I'm not quite ready to "bet the ranch", the commonality of experience makes it worth my while to continue looking at it.
I didn't say the sample, wasn't small. I said it wasn't THAT small. Yes it is possible that the statistical deviation makes the 10% average still possible but with each increase in number of crafts, that chance gets smaller & smaller. And it's eerily odd that the LA % and the Jools % were the same.= %
Also of significance, as Daomi pointed out, we haven't heard of a Lucky Freddy. Peeps I have talked to are reporting the same 7%, or at least less than 10%, and even more oddly, everyone seems to be getting an overabundance of sap boosts. The commonality of experience "seems" just too odd here to be a statistical aberration. Time will tell but I imagine an election newscaster, would have the confidence at this point to "call this one". Yes, there's the Dewey / Truman and Gore in Florida thing in the back of the newscaster's mind but just how often does that happen ?
As pointed out by Gilga here, the random number thing "has" changed:
http://app.ryzom.com/app_forum/index.php?page=topic/view/15434/62
Bitttymacod (atys)
When testing the overall rate of a process affected by an RNG you really need three or four thousand trials before you put a decimal on the percentage.
If we drop the decimal and call it 8%, we still need 25% more to get to the "given" number. I have had my issues with RNG in game before.
I went 0 for 66 on the "/random 100" thing in Dante without thinking it was broken and then managed 3 wins outta the next 10. While that was still only 4% to the expected 11%, I wasn't about to jump to a to a conclusion
I remember that there was a similar discussion back when we started using scrolls. However, I think that few would argue today that the 99% (85 + 14) success rate with a QL70 scroll was real.
Like you, I also do math "for a living" and while I'm not quite ready to "bet the ranch", the commonality of experience makes it worth my while to continue looking at it.
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