English

Observations on roulette can have predictive value if the physical object deviates from an ideal object - e.g. it has some slight material deformations that make it more probable for the ball to end on a certain number (or a class of numbers).

Similarly, random number generators used to be quite weak on computers. One may observe behaviour in the hope that a weak one was implemented in game :D

Placio -- You have consistently misunderstood the word "random" and the difference between a priori expectations and observational measurements of events directed by chance.

You seem to have the "gambler's fallacy" locked down, but you are seriously misinterpreting it. I don't know what textbooks or schooling you are taking for your interpretation but either they are wrong or your interpretation of them is. I made my living for 40+ years interpreting results that were based on the measurement of random impacts of photons on a receptor. I know the statistics.

Bittty - That simplifies matters greatly.

Placio - The reason I say large sample sizes are better is because we don't know the actual numbers behind the curtain. In the event of a roulette wheel or coin toss, we could get away with a smaller sample size simply because we already know the mechanics; they are 1d38 and 1d2.
When you don't know how the numbers are generated though, it takes a bit more data to figure out. If I rolled 2d10 about thirty times, it's entirely possible that I could roll mostly 7s and not have a single result above 12 and thus mistakenly assume that I'm rolling 2d6, but the more I roll, the more likely is is that I'll get a distribution curve that matches what 2d10 would put out.
You are correct that prior results have no impact on future results, but no matter how many times I flip a coin, I can predict with a high degree of certainty that my next toss will be either Heads or Tails with a 50% chance of either... assuming a perfect coin.

Mjollren - You mean like coin tosses generally being 51/49 affairs due to the fact that coins are not perfectly balanced?

The q30 simple writing accessories clearly state they will give 6 skill points bonus. I use them regularly when crafting and have seen these skill boosts: 6,8,10,10, and 9.


The scrolls do NOT work as intended.

its not a bug its a feature

Cathach -- what are you talking about? The skill level increase does not show -- it is just applied. All random factors involved in crafting are also applied. Screenies???

Ok, Let me copy the info of q30 Simple Writing Necessities for you: Modifies your Craft skills by 6 point(s) for 10 min and 40 sec.

Somehow, the origional intent seems to have been changed, such that the items of any level can have any value. I gave examples of greater benefits than the occupation level deserved.

These random values, of any level, obviates any need to take risk and accomplish the highest level of an occupation. This idea of "any random benefit" flys in the face of the notion of achievement. I recommend that the indicated values for this occupation be restored.

What do you mean you've *seen* these boosts? As Bittty said, your skill is simply modified behind the scenes. Have you tracked the rate of degrades and concluded it's all over the place?