Mjollren, let us consider your simulation.
You omit one small(?) factor. If your plan works to encourage OP battles and hence switchovers, then no one will hold an OP for four months, three months or perhaps even two months! As a result, in your evenly matched scenario (assuming totally scheduled distribution by the holding guilds as you do) the distribution time is not going to be reduced, but increased since those masters will not get any mats while their faction/alliance/etc. does not hold the OP.
If they stick to the large alliance as they are currently set (by your example) the alliance will almost certainly continue to hold the OP, so they will get their rubbarn in 4 months (a time period which already feels "too long; don't bother").
If they split up and the evened out groups share the OP on a inter-battle time of 2 weeks and a switchover every other battle (i.e. every month) (and assuming that each of the three groups holds it an average of 1/3 of the time), they will get their rubbarn in 9 months (plus or minus a bunch due to random factors). (I could do a full-fledged simulation with a random number generator, but that value should be the right order of magnitude; it is certainly going to be longer than if they stayed put.) Further, the more OP battles there are, the worse the situation becomes due to the startup delay in drill generation of mats.
If the idea is to have OP mats as a reward for holding the OP, cutting down on the supply doesn't work.
And I think that you still have not shown that there is a surplus of OP mats.
You omit one small(?) factor. If your plan works to encourage OP battles and hence switchovers, then no one will hold an OP for four months, three months or perhaps even two months! As a result, in your evenly matched scenario (assuming totally scheduled distribution by the holding guilds as you do) the distribution time is not going to be reduced, but increased since those masters will not get any mats while their faction/alliance/etc. does not hold the OP.
If they stick to the large alliance as they are currently set (by your example) the alliance will almost certainly continue to hold the OP, so they will get their rubbarn in 4 months (a time period which already feels "too long; don't bother").
If they split up and the evened out groups share the OP on a inter-battle time of 2 weeks and a switchover every other battle (i.e. every month) (and assuming that each of the three groups holds it an average of 1/3 of the time), they will get their rubbarn in 9 months (plus or minus a bunch due to random factors). (I could do a full-fledged simulation with a random number generator, but that value should be the right order of magnitude; it is certainly going to be longer than if they stayed put.) Further, the more OP battles there are, the worse the situation becomes due to the startup delay in drill generation of mats.
If the idea is to have OP mats as a reward for holding the OP, cutting down on the supply doesn't work.
And I think that you still have not shown that there is a surplus of OP mats.
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Remembering Tyneetryk
Phaedreas Tears - 15 years old and first(*) of true neutral guilds in Atys.
(*) This statement is contested, but we are certainly the longest lasting.
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