ROLEPLAY

Daomei rereads the notes from her own and her sister Diwu's diaries and starts to write a report to their old teacher in politics and strategy at the Atys Rangers' military base where she grew up.

Dear old friend, kindly take notice of our observations.

Introduction

After the second great swarming, more than a year of reconstruction followed, without any major tensions between the four nations of the free peoples of Atys. The traditional alliances were resumed tacitly, the Marauders reappeared but did not undertake significant hostile actions. After some time, the nations reinstated their peoples' assemblies according to their traditions, with the innovation of a decentralization and additional rights to the settlements outside the capitals. The change of leadership in three of the four nations took place without noticeable tensions.

But recently, a severe political crisis has developped, triggered by the conduct of some Fyros Akenos on the Akenak assembly in Pyr casting insults against both the Zorai and the Matis ambassadors along with generalizing indignities and aspersions against Matis and Zorai peoples. After the assembly, several Akenak continued their attacks on the Zorai ambassador, even adding physical attack to the verbal ones. The event has found an echo along all the four nations and their peoples.


Fyros: It is not clear what they want and expect to win. Spouting strong words and bragging is not foreign policy. It is also not clear what the Senate and the Sharükos are thinking about the recent Akenak's behaviour. Those Fyros Akenak which did not expose nationalist extremism before seem to be too weak to oppose their colleagues.

Matis: Their stance seems to be that they are not willing to take insult and humiliation lightly. Yet it does not look as if they are already turning to an aggressive stance.

Zorai: Their reaction has been very reluctant so far. Ambassador Zhoi is still insisting on an apology, the circles and the theocracy have not reacted officially. Yet there are signs of growing popular anger questioning the use of the alliance with the Fyros.

Tryker: The Taliar of Avendale, Luth, applauded the insults against the Zorai at the assembly and did not show the least disapproval of the attacks on the Matis. He obviously tried to stir up conflicts between the Empire and the Theocracy in order to prevent the joint building of wells in the jungle as a competition of Tryker water exports. Additionally he questioned the Fyros' allegiance to the Kamist cult. The attitude and opinion of the rest of the Tryker Federation remains unclear, yet Taliar Luth even threatened at the Matis assembly of Davae that the Tryker could breach the alliance with the Matis if those would not allow water deliveries to the desert through Verdant Heights.

Other forces seem to be interfering as well. Recently, anonymous flyers seem to appear in several cities stirring up the conflict and instigating nationalist fervour. Whether there are the clans of the Marauders behind or just some of the usual rebels, renegades, and ruffians is not clear at the moment. Yet the nightmare of heated conflict and even war between the nations which seemed to be banned for so long time seems to be reappearing.

The recent geopolitical situation

In the moment, the traditional loose alliance between the Empire and the Theocracy on the one hand, and the Kingdom and the Federation on the other hand still exists. These alliances are not put into signed treaties. They comprise of an agreement of mutual no-challenge clause and a vague assurance of support in case one of the powers is under attack. They do not, however, constitute any duty to take part in offensive actions of one of the partners against other nations.

Possible consequences of the conflict are a breach of the existing alliances and a period of growing instability in the international relations. With the Fyros acting as barbarians the alliance with the Theocracy will probably not last. On the other hand, the Matis might decide that an irreliable ally dealing and conspiring with the adverse nation even on cost of the kingdom, playing off Matis and Zorai against the Fyros, and even Matis Nobles' assemblies against one another, might be worse than no ally at all. The Zorai, on the other hand, might be attracted by the more civilized and intellectual approach of the kingdom, much more as the reverence of Jena is not unpopular among a not so small part of the Zorai people. Thus, a regrouping of the alliances is not completely impossible. The question is, though, whether it is desirable.

Geostrategical reflections

In case of a war, several gateways for invading forces must be taken in account and safeguarded. Those are the following:

- Faction teleporters

These are available for everyone holding a pact and being entitled for use. In case of a war they pose an everlasting threat of surprise attacks by any of the combatting parties. Yet it is not clear whether the higher forces will allow the usage of faction altars for use of warfare. It is thinkable that they might block usage by active combattants (ooc: tagged players) especially when the warring alliances are spread across faction boundaries.

- Vortex exits from other regions and countries

One must distinguish two kinds of vortex exits: spiraling upwards and v-shaped ones (in bird's eye view). Spiraling exits are a nightmare for any invader, the narrow passageway can easily be roadblocked, be it by barricades or by melee warriors, while the attackers can be taken under fire by magical and ranged distance weapons with area of effect or multitarget characteristics. Relatively small packs of defenders may effectively deny passage to numerically far superior forces.
In v-shaped exits, there is few advantage for any of the sides. Defenders have the advantage to be already grouped while attackers have to group and respond to the different kinds of damage dealt to them immediately after passage. On the other hand, they have the advantage of initiative on their side. Military science generally assumes some superiority of the attacking side to be necessary for winning the upper hand, but speed and surprise may make up for such disadvantage. All in all, fending off and halting such kind of invasion does require roughly as many forces as the attacking side has, and significant superiority to fully deny or destroy it.

- Natural passages and narrowings

Here, the situation is inbetween that of spiraling and v-shaped vortex exits, with the general difference that the size of the attacking and defending forces is easier to be found out by reconnaissance. Typical natural passages are ramps and mazes. Those narrowings are easy to block, and the attacker be taken under fire from distance. Yet the defenders' advantage will be minor compared to spiraling passageways most times though wise selection of topographically advantageous points may create significant vantage of location. Generally any attack will soon degrade to static warfare favoring the side with shorter supply lines when the forces are at par. A breakthrough may be managed most times only by overwhelmingly superior forces. Therefore, natural narrowings may easily be secured by relatively small forces holding back reserves only to be added when the attack is winning intensity. That way, initiative remains with the defending side.

Consequences for the nations


The Empire

Recently, only one of the border gateways of the Empire of the Burning desert abuts to a potentially adverse nation, the Kingdom of the Verdant Heights. The disadvantage is that it is a normal v-shaped vortex exit opening to Kipucka Plain and the open lands of Savage Dunes with the fortified city of Thesos as the only significant stronghold. Yet, the passage further into the heartlands of the Empire is blocked by Outlaw Canyon and Scorched Corridor, huge natural barriers accessible only through a couple of natural and artificial narrowings. Even taking on Thesos is not a trivial enterprise, many, be it kitins, marauders and others, already had to learn that lesson in the past.
The western border is not equally easy to defend, as it harbours two v-shaped vortex outlets, the one from the Under Spring prime roots area, the other from Great Outback, belonging to the Knot of Dementia region of the Theocracy of the Witherings. Those exits are not a major threat right now bordering an allied nation directly or indirectly. From here, the city of Dyron can be reached without any natural obstacle. Only in the east, the Hightowers cliffs constitute a series of natural narrowings blocking the way to the fortified capital of Pyr.
Another gateway can be found deep in the Scorched Corridor bordering the Windy Gate region of the Land of Umbra. This entry point is located in a narrow cave, not ideal for any invading army finding itself in the most adverse region of the desert even when forcing the way out.

The Kingdom

The homelands of the Matis are connected to the outside world by three exits: the v-shaped vortex from Hidden Source to the desert region of Savage Dunes, the similar exit to Lands of Loria in the Lakelands in the utter south of the Heretic's Hovel region, and the entry to Abyss of Ichor in Knoll of Dissent, a spiraling vortex mound.
The Hidden Source area is clearly not unimportant to the Kingdom, the Victoria Falls in the middle considered a strategic water reserve. The region was long disputed between Kingdom and Empire, and the northern Fyros descending tribes still pay at least as much loyalty to the desert as to the Kingdom. And the region is not fully under control insofar as the infamous marauder lieutenant Sirgio uses to have his camp in the middle of Tylini gate, and the Marauder stronghold is located in the northwest of the region and defies any attempt of removal.
Yet the ramp in the southeast of the region effectively separates the heartlands of the Kingdom from this dangerous area, and any invading army had first to cope with the complexities of terrain, fauna, and inhabitants as well as with the defenders, only to be running into the ramp area near Little Mountain. Forcing a breakthrough there would be quite a challenging task.
Same goes for the southern border. Here the Maze of Sprites, a narrow and confusing area full of adverse fauna and violent primitives, is adjacent to the vortex entry.
The third entry point is not only easily defensible, reaching it through Lands of Umbra and Nexus Minor, traversing whole Abyss of Ichor, would hardly go undetected. Logistics over this distance would be a nightmare for any invading force.

The Witherings

The jungle region is directly adjacent only to one of the four nations, the Empire, in the northwestern part of the Knot of Dementia region, the Great Outback. The vortex here is a v-shaped exit on both sides. The desert-like region of Great Outback narrows to a downwards ramp in the east constituting the only passage to the inner of the lands of the Theocracy. This ramp is "guarded" in addition by large packs of Kirosta and Kipucka. It is bit disadvantagous in addition for any accessor of this area that some large named creatures are patrolling it. a defensive force may be stationed west below of it anyway controlling and effectively denying any unwanted trespassing.
Three vortexes exit from prime roots regions, all of them with spiraling passageways. The Under Spring exit near Knot of Dementia Kami altar is closest to the capital, far in the east, in Grove of Umbra, the southwestern part of Trench of Trials region, part of Lands of Umbra prime roots region, abuts to Zorai lands. It is the shortest passage to Lakelands bordering the southwestern corner of Trench of Trials. The last one, in the north of void, leads to the Wastelands prime roots region of Lands of Continuity. Both these exits are connected in some way to Nexus Minor, and thus interconnected to Matis, Fyros, and Tryker lands. But only the passage to Lakelands has any realistic importance.

The Lakelands

The homeland of the Trykers has two exits connecting it to the outside: a v-shaped vortex exit in the west of the Bounty Beaches region, northwest of Tupile Trade post, and another one, already described, in the northeast of Watergate Border Post in Lagoons of Loria.
The first one leads to Trench of Trials in Lands of Umbra prime roots region. Though it always poses a certain threat of attacks by any adverse forces, it is relatively easy to be controlled as long as the Federal forces have no more vital tasks to fulfill, much more as any attacker has to pass Trench of Trials before and may easily be detected with some vigilance.
The second one is safe as long and only as long as the Federation is not in conflict with the kingdom. The bravery of federal forces not diminuishing one can assume that the armed forces of the Trykers are not a match for those of the Kingdom in open field battles. An army breaking through the vortex could reach Avendale quite fast, or turn west to Winds of Muse threatening Crystabell from Dew Drops, or even Fairhaven. The Federation is not at all a very militarized entity, and would have a hard time against strong mobile forces. Only when an attacker would try to occupy Tryker lands and cities he would suffer dire surprises as the Trykers have been masters of guerilla warfare since the old times of the famous Loria.

Summary:

The recent alliances are guaranteeing a quite high level of stability and military equilibrium. There are few points of adjacent borders where an enemy could strike and break through, and any such attempt would end in exhaustion and the need to get back to consent. The smaller forces in both alliances enjoy the situation of a safe and remote hinterland, even in case of a military conflict.

A regroupment of the alliances would create a highly unstable situation. In times of tension both Zorai and Matis would surely mobilize their forces to occupy an fortify the ramps of Little Mountain and Great Outback, the Matis, in addition, the two passageways in Maze of Sprites.

Unfortunately, the adverse side would not be able to tell such measures, even if meant entirely defensively, from preparations for a full-scaled onslaught. The Empire would have to count with attacks at three sides, none of them easily to block or counter, with the initiative completely with the adverse side. It is unlikely that the Fyros would keep cold blood in such a situation.

For the Trykers, the situation would be even worse. Their ally would be far away and unable to send significant support. The federal forces would hardly suffice to fend off attacks which could come from the Trench of Trials as well as from Heretic Hovel. Their trade lines would be cut anyway. And an alliance of the Kingdom and the Theocracy could decide to finish off the smaller adversary first. Their goal could be not to conquer and occupy the Lakelands, rather to dictate a "friendly" neutrality allowing the allied armies to march through and do logistics.

An unknown variable in these equations are the Marauders. The are clearly appreciating quarrel between the free peoples and would do their best to make conflicts to last as long as possible and to cause as much damage as possible in the free nations. That would bring forward their megalomaniac plans to destroy the nations, suppress the religions, and to "unite" hominkind under the tyranny of the criminal leaders of the rotten Clan of the Ashes, Melkiar, Muang, and Akilia.

So far my observations, speculations, and assessments. I hope I didn't bore you

For all of Atys!

Daomei Lin Carthan (still waiting to join the Atys Rangers' forces)