Gidget
If I did not know you, I would have a very bad opinion of you based on this entire exchange. As it stands, I feel that this discussion is utterly pointless, and that I've had enough of being dismissed, disrespected, and outright gaslit that I'm just going to walk away from your uncharacteristic megalomania. Hopefully when next we meet, you will be the more reasonable Freddy that I've liked and respected for years rather than whoever wrote the last few posts that have your name attached to them.
I'm not addressing you, your experience, your personality or your ego. Such thinks have no place in intellectually honet debate. Neither mine nor yours is relevant in any way. This isn't personal. It's math. If you want to provide counterpoint, skip the derogatory personal characterization distraction and show the math.
"The law of large numbers is closely related to what is commonly called the law of averages. In coin tossing, the law of large numbers stipulates that the fraction of heads will eventually be close to 1/2. Hence, if the first 10 tosses produce only 3 heads, it seems that some mystical force must somehow increase the probability of a head, producing a return of the fraction of heads to its ultimate limit of 1/2. Yet the law of large numbers requires no such mystical force"
Outside of Ryzom, I don't recognize mystical forces. Every industry uses the same procedure... Hard Drive MBTF, Tire Mileage Warranty, Life insurance, car insurance, investment.
Yes it's always possible that a set of 10 data points will produce just as accurate a data set of 100 or a set of 1000 ... on occasion. It's just not as liklely. The **Law** of Large Numbers favor the larger data set. It's called a "law" because it has been proven mathenmetically to be unassailable. That doesn't make the data from the 100 unit sampling worthless ... the 100 and 1000 combined now makes a new data set of 1100. I hope we can agree that ith just two possible outcomes the chances of black / red at the roulette table are 50 - 50.
Now in 4 spins ... the odds are 50-50, same as a coin toss ... but just one toss astray and the result is 75-25. If you are going to claim that it is just as likely that 100 tosses will produce 750 - 250, I can only answer "show me the math". Probability and possibility are two different things, if we can't agree on that basic principle, and the math involved, then we agree, there is no basis for a reasonable discussion.
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